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15-Sep-2020 13:45

The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.

Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.

In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.

The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.

The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.

Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.

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A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.The trough dates for these indicators are: Macroeconomic Advisers' monthly GDP (June) The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June) Their index of monthly GDI (July) An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June) Real manufacturing and trade sales (June) Index of Industrial Production (June) Real personal income less transfers (October) Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October) Payroll survey employment (December) Household survey employment (December) The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators–aggregate hours and employment–for two reasons.First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.

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The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.

Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.